Mary Meeker’s latest slides: global, mobile & audio

KPCB Internet Trends 2011

Yesterday KPCB partner Mary Meeker once again gave one of her famous talks at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco. I always look forward to her slides, she has access to amazing data and manages to find great angles to explain her vision of the future. Just reading her slides inspires me to think about where the world – and especially my own businesses – are heading. I embed her presentation above, in case you can’t open it you can also find the presentation here.

Yesterday’s talk focused for a large part on mobile. Mary Meeker is extremely bullish about mobile and I fully agree with her. In my opinion every company has to work on mobile sites and apps in order to stay relevant, not only for the future but now already. Should you make iPad apps or Android? Well, you may hear a lot about Apple iPhone & iPad apps, but Android phones are bigger than the iPhone already (152 million vs. 129 million sold). Of course iOS users are generally more wealthy (Android also offers cheaper handsets), so you should not ignore them, but the real growth will take place with Android. Having an HTML5 solution would be even better of course, something Spil Games has been evangelizing for over a year already.

You can even make good money on mobile devices now, because mobile advertising is taking off and showing huge growth. According to Mary Meeker’s data 250 companies out of the Forbes 1000 launched mobile ad campaigns already! Combine that with the fact that doing micro-payments on a phone is not that difficult and that many people are more willing to pay for mobile content than for PC content (how many apps did you buy on your laptop recently vs. apps on your mobile phone?), and you will see the huge opportunity mobile presents.

Several Internet companies now already see more than half of their traffic coming from mobile devices. Music service Pandora for example, but also Twitter gets more than 50% of its traffic from mobile. Facebook ‘only’ gets 33% of its page views from mobile, but if you realize that this was just 1% 3 years ago you can see the shift that is happening in the market. Did you know that now already more phones and tablets are shipped every year than laptops and desktops?

When you don’t live in the US it is clear that there is a lot of activity happening in the Internet space outside China. But many US companies don’t seem to realize that. It happened so often to me already that I wanted to book a ticket or a hotel room, but that I could not do that without a US address or credit card… Lost opportunities, because I am sure I am not the only one. Luckily Mary Meeker also points this out by sharing with the audience that 81% of users of the top global Internet companies are outside the US. She also pointed out that China added more Internet users in the past 3 years than there are in the whole US of A.

Another interesting part of her presentation is about interfaces. These have transformed from text only in the early 1980s to graphical user interfaces in the 1990s and 2000s. And now touch screens are taking over. My kids already don’t understand why my laptop has no touch screen like their iPads, but very soon they will also not understand why my laptop does not answer when they talk to it. Because according to the presentation online audio might be the next big thing. Apple timed the launch of Siri on the iPhone 4S well it seems, and also Spotify’s integration in Facebook was also at the right moment!

Mary Meeker also talks about some global trends that she sees. One slide has stayed on top of my mind since I read the presentation a couple of hours ago: More people now have access to a wireless signal (85%) than to electricity (80%)! That’s how fast the world is changing. The global information flow is truly global now, and it’s extremely fast (check out her chart on Tweets from Japan 10 minutes before and 10 minutes after the earthquake).

Another great slide is about privacy, a concept that I feel is outdated. I don’t believe in hiding who you are, just like you can’t do that when you live in a small village – and because of the Internet and social networks the world is becoming a big village. More and more you can’t even hide anymore, even if you want to(ever been tagged in a picture on Facebook?).

I want to end this post with what Mary Meeker wrote about this (emphasis added by me), I fully agree with her:

It’s hard to hide. The ‘truth’ is often just a photo/click–send away.

‘Clean, well-lighted place to do business?’ ‘People are basically good?’

In a world with tremendous uncertainty – owing to the rapid ramp in always-on, connected citizens of the world, perhaps, the world is on the cusp of being safer than ever?

There are lots of sacrifices. This is new terrain.
Only time will tell how all this plays out.

Overview of China social media equivalents

Ogilvy's China social media equivalents (Oct. 2011)

Ogilvy China updated its infographic showing China’s social media equivalents – or copycats, as Western media loves to call them. Of course many of these started out as copycats, but most evolved into much more than the original Western website, either by adding additional functionalities or by localization of functions.

Interesting is that they now partially merged the SNS and microblogging categories. Services like Sina Weibo are so much more than Twitter is, that they come close to what Facebook offers the Western world.

One of the categories that Ogilvy added was light blogging service Tumbler, for which they suggested China copycats DianDian and Qing. It’s an interesting category that I still don’t really get. Setting up and posting to a blog is so simple, why use Tumbler for that?

Another new category is Purchase Sharing. I believe this might be a major one, especially in China where people love to show off everything they buy or want to buy. Western fashion diaries/blogs like lookbook.nu are a good example of this from the fashion industry, other sectors will probably follow.

I don’t agree with all equivalents (where is Lashou in the Groupon copycat section?), but it gives a nice overview of what’s happening on the Chinese Internet. It’s also a good way for Western companies to check out what their Chinese equivalents are up to, they may be able to learn a thing or two from them.

Click on the picture for a bigger version of the social media infographic, or see the original here

 

Run along the Mao River outside Shanghai

The Mao river at Sun Island

This morning my dad and I drove over to the Mao River, between Tianmashan and Dianshan Lake, about 35 minutes from my home in Shanghai. After running for two weekends around Sheshan and Tianmashan we were looking for a place to run with less traffic and people. On Google Maps I found a small road next to a river close to Sun Island, and it turned out to be a good place to run.

Today's half marathon run in Google Maps

Getting up was a bit difficult, even though I did not drink too much at Christine Lu’s Affinity party at CVRVE last night (thanks for the nice champagne and cocktails Christine!). But once we arrived at the river I was fully awake, especially because the circumstances to run were fantastic: a clear blue sky and mild temperatures (around 20 Celsius at 8:30 AM).

Marc running along the Mao river

The road along the river turned out to be even better than I had imagined. No holes, with nice trees and plants on both sides of the road. There was hardly any traffic on the road, because most entrances were closed off with oil drums. Just a few scooters, an occasional local car and a few peasants working in the fields, most of whom were very surprised when they saw 2 foreigners running by, especially when they were also greeted nicely.

Rice fields on the inside of the dike, with a village in the background

The river was more busy than the road, every few minutes a boat sailed by. It’s nice to see them pass by when you run, I enjoyed watching them. We also saw some smaller boats, but they mainly stayed on the small canals to the villages that lined the river.

Small boat coming from a village

The nature around the Mao river consists of a lot of lakes and canals, it reminds me a bit of an area in Holland not too far from my parents home (for Dutch people, the area around Giethoorn). Even the high bridges over the canals were similar.

End of Mao river in Dianshan Lake

My dad and I did a 21.1 km run (a half marathon distance) as preparation for the New York Marathon that takes place exactly 3 weeks from today. Although I used to find a half marathon distance quite long, it seems to be getting shorter and shorter when you get in better shape. We took it easy today and ran the distance in less than 2 hours, including some stops to take pictures and take in the scenery around us. We were both not tired at all, I felt like I could have run a bit longer without any problem. A good sign for the marathon, although I know from experience that the marathon only gets very hard after about 30 kilometers.

Lex running along the Mao river

If you are looking for a nice place to run in Shanghai for long distance practice, this might be a good place to check out. On weekdays it may be very busy on the highways, but on weekend mornings you should be there in about 35 minutes from Hongqiao and maybe another 10 minutes more from downtown. You’ll need your own car though, because finding a taxi there might be tricky.

The Mao river at Sun Island

Soong Ching Ling Kindergarten Open Day

Scott and his classmates

On Friday the kids had their annual Open Day at Soong Ching Ling Kindergarten, where the parents can spend some time with the children in their class rooms. Last year it was fun to see Scott in this regular school environment, so this year I of course blocked the morning in my calendar so I could join.

View from Scott's classroom

As usual there were lots of moms and grandparents at the open day, but hardly any fathers. In Scott’s class with about 20 kids I think there were only one or two other fathers. I think it’s a pity for them that they can’t take time off to see their kids play in school. Most of them have their owns businesses or are top business people, so they don’t have to live other people’s agendas. It’s important for the kids to see their parents, but for me it’s also important to see what kind of things Scott and Elaine learn during class and who their teachers and classmates are.

Scott playing at school (SCL Open Day)

Two kids actually had no parents coming at all, I felt really sorry for them. If both Grace and me would not be able to come I would keep my kids home on a day like this. The two kids were now sitting with a teacher during the morning, while all others were happily playing with their parents.

Scott and Grace

We first went to Scott’s class, where the kids sang two songs for us (one in English and one in Chinese). Then they had to make a little man with paper, glue and some strings for the hair. The parents could help them, so most were done in about 10 minutes. Then it was free indoor playtime. The classroom has lots of games, books and a big collection of toys to play with. Scott first played with a train and with some cars and then picked 2 puzzles to make. He didn’t need my help, but he liked me being there.

Scott playing at school (SCL Open Day)

Grace had already gone to Elaine’s class (the times overlapped a bit), and I stayed with Scott until all parents were leaving. Then I also walked over to Elaine’s classroom, where she was playing happily with a puzzle.

Elaine playing at school (SCL Open Day)

When she finished she cleaned up the puzzle (they learn that well in school) before starting to play with a hitting game with a plastic hammer. She is such a sweet girl: when I told her to hit me on the head with her hammer, she said “no daddy, that hurts!”.

Elaine playing at school (SCL Open Day)

It’s nice to observer my kids in the classroom. They really seem to enjoy school. Every morning when I take them to school they are happy to be there and during the Open Day they were proud to show us their skills.

Elaine playing at school (SCL Open Day)

When it was time to go home Elaine actually did not want to leave. Only when she saw that all other kids were leaving as well she packed her toys away and went to change her indoor shoes for outdoor ones. I am happy to see that she is happy in school, and also that Scott is excited to go to school every day.

Elaine's classroom

Elaine putting on her shoes after school

Happy Birthday Marc! – From Google

Google Doodle: Happy Birthday Marc!

Today is my birthday. Every year I wonder what media will be used most to congratulate me. A few years ago it used to be the phone, then it was email (remember the e-greeting cards?) or SMS, then Twitter and this year it’s almost only Facebook. Interesting to observe this shift.

It also reflects the social media I use most for communications – well, not completely true, email is still #1, but nowadays I am more on Facebook than on Twitter. Let’s see if that’s still the case next year or whether Google+ will have taken that position.

Talking about Google, just now I went to Google.com by coincidence (I normally use the Chrome address box to search) and what do I see? A Google birthday doodle. I was really surprised by this and wondered what web celebrity would share my birthday. So I hovered my mouse over the graphic and the text “Happy Birthday Marc!” appeared. Then I got it: when you’re logged into Google and open Google.com on your birthday this doodle will automatically appear. Pretty cool, I had never heard about this actually. Is this something new or has it been around for a long time already?

Elaine’s picture used without permission on Chinese halloween costumes

A Chinese company used Elaine's picture on their product without permission

This morning my wife was shopping at Carrefour and she was looking at some of the Halloween costumes on sale for our kids. She noticed a picture of a girl that looks a lot like Elaine, so she took better look. Then she got a shock because she realized it was a picture of Elaine!

The photoshopped picture of Elaine

Turns out that a Chinese company had used an older picture of Elaine, badly photoshopped it with their halloween custome and put it on the packaging material of their products. Of course we never gave permission for this. The products are sold in many stores in China, among others Carrefour and Walmart. Not sure yet what we will do, will discuss with my wife when I am back in China tomorrow.

Elaine's original picture

By the way, it’s not only Chinese companies that do this, something similar happened once with Nokia: one of my Flickr pictures ended up in a campaign for the Nokia E65!

Update (Oct. 11, 2011): Grace contacted the company, after some discussions they told us that they used Elaine’s picture for 2 products and agreed to change all the packaging with her picture on it. Let’s see if they will really do it. Hopefully no need for a court case.

RIP

Steve Jobs RIP

When I woke up this morning in my hotel room in Amsterdam the first thing I saw on Twitter was that Steve Jobs had passed away. Although I knew he was very sick, the news was still a shock to me. I only met Steve Jobs once, so I don’t know really know him, but I read most of the books and many of the articles written about him. My feeling is that he was not an easy person to have around, but that everybody respected him and listened to him because he was such a visionary.

Apple.com on the day of Steve Jobs death

He has been a source of inspiration to me and I admire how he managed to turn Apple around and make it the biggest company in the world. And looking at what’s happening on Facebook today, where many of my friends are changing their profile picture to Steve Jobs or one related to him, I am not the only one.

Even Google commemorates Steve Jobs on its home page

He changed my world, literally: All my laptops, phones and tablets are Apple products, and will likely be Apple products for the foreseeable future. Each time Steve went on stage for his keynotes I knew I had to get my credit card ready for another product that I just had to buy. There is no other brand that has this impact on me and it is hard to imagine there will ever be one.

Every Weibo page had this Steve Jobs commemoration banner

Even in China, where Apple is still a small (but very well-known) brand, his death is a major event. When I logged into Weibo (Chinese Twitter) this morning I noticed that there was a banner commemorating Steve Jobs above my Weibo stream. Many of the messages are about Steve Jobs as well. I don’t think Steve has every visited China, but he was a role model to many ambitious Chinese as well.

RIP

Alibaba and Yahoo: some thoughts

(Quickly writing this in the lounge before boarding a plane, hope not too many grammar/spelling mistakes)

This morning I did a radio interview with Dutch station Business News Radio (BNR). The topic was the interest that Alibaba has shown in taking over Yahoo. When I first read about Jack Ma’s speech at Stanford last week where he mentioned this, I was a bit surprised. But like I mentioned during the program, now I think it is actually quite logical. Here some of my thoughts on this potential deal.

Back in 2005 Yahoo took a 40% stake in Alibaba for a total amount of over USD 1 billion plus the “rights” for Alibaba to run Yahoo China. A huge number at that time, but a very smart decision because the share is worth a lot more these days. So much more that a few months ago the total value of Yahoo was almost the same as its stakes in Yahoo Japan (where they set up a JV with Softbank) and in Alibaba. Yahoo helped Alibaba to grow with its investment, and Jack Ma knows this. But now the tables are turned and Yahoo is in trouble. Alibaba wanted to buy back its share in Yahoo for a while already, but Yahoo did not want to sell. Now Alibaba has the chance to get back its shares by buying (part of) Yahoo.

Not trying to take a share might actually be dangerous for Alibaba, because then Alibaba has to wait and see who will take over Yahoo (in case it should be sold) and they may get a new shareholder on board that they don’t want to have. So in a way Jack Ma may even be forced to be involved in this deal.

But there is more. By buying Yahoo or taking a big stake in it, Alibaba can enter the US market. I think Alibaba wants to grow outside of its homebase of China, and this may be a great way to kickstart that. Alibaba was the reason that Ebay never succeeded in China, despite investing tons of resources. Now Alibaba wants to fight with Ebay on Ebay’s home turf. Jack Ma even announced that he plans to live in the US for a year, I don’t think he would do that just to buy a share in Yahoo.

But Alibaba likely can’t do it alone, even if it wants to buy Yahoo completely they probably can’t finance it. So they will need partners, and it seems both Silver Lake (a PE fund) and the Russian DST fund are joining Alibaba in a consortium. Seems like a good combination to get Yahoo back on track to me.

But even if they manage to put a bid together that gets accepted by the shareholders, I think there will be a problem: The US government. I don’t think they will like a Chinese company to take control of one of America’s biggest online properties, with a huge database of emails and credit card details, plus one of the biggest search engines. It won’t be the first time they block a deal (think Huawei trying to buy 3Com), and I would not be surprised if a Alibaba/Yahoo deal would be blocked in the same way. For more background on this, see also this article on Digicha.

It would be good for Yahoo to get some new entrepreneurial blood into its veins, whether it’s US, Chinese or Russian. They have some great assets that they are totally neglecting, for example Flickr.com. I love the photo site despite there being no real changes in the past years. As an entrepreneur in China I’ll be following this story with interest.