How to get the best start-up ideas

A couple of weeks ago I came across a great article by Y Combinator’s Paul Graham about how to get start-up ideas (thanks for the link Raghu). Today I was in the playground while my daughter Elaine was playing and I was looking at the articles that I saved in Pocket over the past weeks. Then I saw this one again. I decided to re-read it and while doing that I felt it was so good that I should probably post the main points, combined with my own experiences, on my blog.

Paul Graham has seen thousands of start-ups over the years, and as a serial entrepreneur and programmer himself he has a lot of personal experience with founding and growing businesses. He writes about it on his personal site, it’s a great resource if you’re interested in entrepreneurship. His latest essay is titled ‘How to Get Start-up Ideas’ and gives IMHO a very good overview of how to find the next big thing, or at the very least how to avoid working on the wrong ideas. The post that he wrote is quite long, so take your time to read it. One reason why I saved it in Pocket is because it was too long to read during the daytime, so I saved it to read it during my daily commute (or in the playground!).

The best way to find a good start-up is to look for problems, preferbly your own problems. Good ideas have generally 3 things in common: founders want or need this function/app/product, they can build it themselves, and few others realize it’s worth doing. The second one is especially important for me when I invest in start-ups. I hardly ever put money in a company that has to outsource its programming. If you are not a programmer and don’t have a technical co-founder, make sure you learn to code yourself. Basic programming skills only take about 3 months to learn, it’s probably one of the best investments you’ll ever make if you want to run a start-up.

Don’t sit down and think of start-up ideas. Not only will you not get a lot of ideas, but the ones that you’ll get are probably the wrong ones. You can either build something that a large group of people want a little bit, or something that a small group of people want a lot. If that’s the case go for the latter. That’s how Facebook, Apple and Microsoft all got started (see the article for more details).

You’ll get the best ideas when you are on the edge of a fast-moving field. Focus on the field that you know a lot about, if you then get an idea that seems right, the chance that it will work is relatively high. Take your time, even if it will take you a year to get to the edge of a field it may be a good investment.

Live in the future (look at how the world should be in 3-5 years from now) and focus on what is missing. Or even better, focus on what seems interesting to do. If you do that chances of success are biggest.

When I was in university I once had a discussion with a friend over a some beers, in which I said something like “I think all the big things have been invented already, it will be hard to come up with something completely new if you want to set up your own business”. This was around 1993, the moment when the Internet had just been invented! My mind was totally closed for what was happening and the implications it would have. I mainly looked at existing things (trading, physical production of goods etc.) and could not think big yet. I really believe this takes time to learn. Therefore don’t sit down and expect the good ideas to come to you.

Give yourself time to find an idea. Open your mind for things that are missing, but don’t consider right away whether it would be a good start-up idea or whether it could turn into a big company (you’ll throw away a lot of good ideas or focus on the bad ones). It took me years to look at the world in a way that I constantly see opportunities. I now have new ideas literally almost every day. Most won’t work, but that’s not the point. You just need to look at the world in a different way, and that works best if you are on the leading edge of a field (in my case right now a combination of consumer Internet, mobile apps and China).

The best ideas come when you know a lot about 2 different fields. Paul Graham advises programmers not to take an internship at a software company, but to for example work at a biotech company. From my experience that’s indeed how the best ideas are formed.

People in one industry (TV, fashion, etc.) know mainly about their own business field, but don’t see what’s happening in other areas. Having an open mind because you come from a different industry helps you to see what’s missing and fill the gaps. Be prepared for the experts to tell you that it won’t work because ‘you don’t understand the industry’. If you believe in your idea getting this kind of criticism is actually a good thing, because it lowers the risk that others from the industry will do something similar.

Not that you should be afraid of competition. Start-ups are normally not killed off by competitors, so don’t give your competition too much credit. Just make sure you do something different (or better) than they do. In my opinion most business fields are not a winner-takes-it-all market, so even if there is a lot of competition you should still go ahead if you feel that you can do things better. Think about Google that entered the saturated search market in the late 90s, they had a secret weapon and beat all of them.

Paul Graham’s essay has a lot more advice, including what to do if your start-up is not doing the right thing and you need a new idea quickly. Whether you are a wannabe entrepreneur or already very experienced, take 30 minutes to read his thoughts and experiences. And then take another 30 minutes to think about your own business or the field you are an expert in and try to figure out how it might (or should) look like a few years from now. Happy entrepreneuring!

Christmas Tree

Decorating the Christmas tree

I can’t believe it’s already December, the past couple of months have flown by. Scott was happy to see on the calendar that it’s December, because his birthday is later this month and he can now count how many nights he will still have to sleep until his 5th birthday.

And because it’s December it’s also time to decorate our Christmas tree. We decided not to use the same tree that we had for the past 2 years but buy a new one. We normally plant our tree in the garden after Christmas, but because this tree fell over during a typhoon in August it doesn’t really stand straight anymore. So we bought another tree, not a typical Christmas tree but this one we liked it a lot.

This morning we decorated it with the help of the kids, and now the house starts to have a real Christmas atmosphere!

Our Christmas tree

Scott learned to ride his bicycle today

Scott can ride a bicycle!

Scott has been riding a bicycle with side wheels for almost 2 years, so now it was time to teach him to ride on a normal bicycle. Last weekend I removed the side wheels of his bicycle and I went out for a ride with him. At first Scott plainly refused, he just walked next to his bike. I finally convinced him to try it out, by promising to hold him the whole time so he would not fall.

It took about 15 minutes before he understood how to get some sort of equilibrium while riding, so he would not fall continuously. After 30 minutes he managed to ride a few meters without me holding him, but it was not a big success.

So today we gave it another try, and this time it went without a problem! Right away he got the hang of it (see video below or here on Tudou) and rode away from me as fast as he could. A few minutes later he even started riding over the speed bumps on the roads in our compound – without falling! He is very proud that he can now ride himself and I am a proud father!

At the same time Elaine also ditched her small tricycle and moved onto a bicycle with side wheels. I taught her how to ride last weekend and she picked it up very fast. She now tries to follow Scott and I try to make sure that none of them stays too far behind or falls down. An impossible task of course, but a lot of fun! See her video below where Scott almost crashes into her in the end. If the embedded video doesn’t work you can see it here on Tudou.

“Life Balance” at Daimler out of balance

Kodari, Nepal

I just came across a German-language article on Daimler’s new “Life Balance” rules and I was surprised at some of the rights that Daimler employees will get. The one that most shocked me was that from next year on employees can opt to automatically delete all emails that they receive during their holiday! Yes, delete. Not just an auto-responder that they are on holiday and will answer after they are back, but a message that the message has been deleted and the name of someone who replaces the employee during their vacation.

Don’t get me wrong, when you are an employee you don’t have to work 24/7 and vacation should be a real vacation. I guess if you don’t want to check your email during your holiday that should be okay if you are not an entrepreneur or work for a start-up. But automatically deleting messages goes way too far. Suppose you are a customer sending an email to Daimler and you get a reply that your email has been deleted and that you should contact someone elseā€¦ Ridiculous.

The problem is that once one company starts doing this, employees at other companies may also want these privileges. Maybe a huge multinational can survive with this kind of rules, but there is no way a start-up could ever implement this.

If I look back at the 7 years that I worked at Daimler I never worked much during my holidays, that was just not the company culture. The work basically stopped for 1, 2 or even 3 weeks and when you came back you had to work on a backlog of emails and especially (at that time) big piles of snail mail and memos. It felt good to work hard on that for a few days, knowing that you did not miss anything. I can’t imagine coming back from a holiday and seeing an empty inbox, it would scare me not knowing what had happened while I was not there.

Next to that, a lot of work that I did was not something that someone could just take over. You had to know the background of ongoing discussions and you would need to have access to all my past emails and files to figure those out. It’s not like you just replace someone working on a production line for a few weeks.

I guess it’s good that I am not a manager at Daimler anymore, it would literally freak me out if people working for me would delete their mails during a holiday. Of course it would be a quick way to figure out which employees are the least motivated or could easily be replaced, but I guess as a manager you would know that already anyway (and try firing someone in Germany, it’s almost impossible!).

Volkswagen went even further than this last year, for some of their employees Blackberry email stops working at 6:15 PM and only turns on again at 7 AM the next morning. I wonder if this actually works, it would probably cause me more stress knowing that I could not check or answer my email.

I just started reading Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged, and the world that she describes in her book reminds me a bit of what’s happening with employee rights in Germany. Maybe my attitude toward work and employee rights has changed too much after 13 years in China? Is this the new normal in Europe or do Europeans also see this as a step too far?

Shanghai Marathon Propaganda

One week from today the Shanghai Marathon will take place and this year the organization discovered that they can send out mass SMS to non-Chinese participants. A few weeks ago it already started by out of the blue telling me that I had to pick up my start number at a certain location. That message probably should have been sent next week but they broadcast it too early.

A few more messages followed and now the organization started to send out ‘tips’. They are so hilarious that I wanted to share them with you. Maybe Chinese runners appreciate this, but I can’t take a marathon organization serious that reminds me of things like ‘marathon strengthens physique and pleasures body and mind’…

Shanghai Marathon keeps on spamming participants with dumb tips

Or this one from last night asking me to ‘make a self assessment’ because ‘caring life is everyone’s responsibility:

Shanghai Marathon keeps on spamming participants with dumb tips

Interesting is that all messages so far came from different phone numbers, so you can’t even block their spam SMS. I hope the organization of the race will be more professional than these messages and better than the mess they created so far.

Start-up idea: Boulevard of Broken Dreams

I have new businesses ideas all the time, but normally don’t have time to implement any of them or to find (and fund) a team to execute the idea. Today’s idea I got when my kids were playing in the playground and I was watching them. It’s one of those moments that you can’t do much else and my thoughts often go in different directions.

I look at new business plans almost every day and some are really good. But many still don’t get funded, because for example the team is not smart/eager/experienced enough, because they focus on the wrong target market, because their valuation is too high, or because of many other reasons that are not always completely objective.

Normally these teams already have a working prototype or built a working piece of software (I never look at plans that are still in the idea phase). Normally I don’t hear anything from these entrepreneurs again, but sometimes I hear from other investors that the company didn’t make it and shut down. Other teams manage to get some funding but eventually also don’t survive.

If you know that out of every 10 angel investments only 1 or 2 do really well and maybe another 1 or 2 generally just break even, it means that the vast majority of funded businesses eventually fail. If you also take into account the business that never raise any money, it probably means that 75-80% of all implemented business ideas never get off the ground.

From experience I know that most founders just abandon the idea and do something different. But that means that there is a huge amount of software, apps, websites and product designs out there that have value to other start-ups, but that nobody knows about. Many business ideas could still be successful in a different market or with a different team.

My idea would be to build an online market for virtual assets of failed companies, a Boulevard of Broken Dreams. It could be a database where companies can describe what virtual assets they have (probably source code is most interesting, but possibly also designs or even ideas that can be patented), and others can browse them and bid for these assets. I think you would be surprised how many source codes could be (partially) re-used in other start-ups. That would save new (or existing) businesses a lot of time, because they can get started with a working source code for a similar product that they are working on.

I have never seen a site or app like this (but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, just that the founders didn’t execute well enough), but it should be fairly easy to build. The potential market is huge, because most founders or investors should be happy to get at least some money back or may even be willing to be paid in shares in the new company. I certainly would use it, both to get inspired for new business ideas and to sell off virtual assets of companies that failed.

I just wanted to put this idea out there, because I don’t have the capacity to work on it and maybe it will inspire somebody to work on it.

Elton John concert in Shanghai

Elton John in concert (Shanghai)

Last night Grace and I were invited to watch Elton John perform in the Mercedes-Benz Arena in Shanghai. Our driver dropped us off at the backstage lounge at 7 PM, where Credit Suisse organized a small pre-concert cocktail reception.

Marc with Elton John sunglasses in the Mercedes-Benz lounge

At the pre-concert cocktail reception with Elton John glasses

We had a couple of glasses of Dom Perignon champagne and some excellent finger food, had our pictures taken, got Elton John sunglasses and talked to some friends who had also been invited. Our banker told us that Elton John did not want to come over for a meet and greet with the guests, but that the good news was that he would start on time today.

Backstage before the Elton John concert

Backstage before the Elton John concert

Fifteen minutes before the concert started we walked into the stadium, took a look at the stage and then went over to our seats. We were in the 6th row, right in front of Elton’s piano, so we had a great view during the concert.

Elton John in concert (Shanghai)

2Cellos

Exactly at 8 PM Elton appeared on the giant video screens announcing 2Cellos as the opening act. They started with Smooth Criminal, that made them famous on YouTube last year. It’s amazing what these guys can do with their cellos, watch them on YouTube or Tudou. During their second song the band members of Elton John came on stage already and joined the cellists in their performance. Right after that the band started playing the firsts notes of “The Bitch is Back” and Sir Elton jumped onto the stage. A great song to start the concert!

Elton John in concert (Shanghai)

We had been informed that we would not be allowed to stand during the concert, but the moment Elton sat down behind his piano the whole floor stood up from their seats already. It took 2 songs before security managed to get everybody to sit down again. Of course during the rest of the concert lots of people started dancing at their seats, how can you expect people to only sit during such a performance?

Elton John in concert (Shanghai)

The concert was completely sold out

The set list only consisted of famous Elton John classics, from the 1970s until the early 2000s. From Bennie and the Jets to Mona Lisa and Mad Hatters and from Goodbye Yellow Brick Road to the 12-minute Funeral for a Friend/Love Lies Bleeding. Of course he also played many of his famous love songs, among others Your Song, Daniel, and Candle in the Wind. The total performance lasted almost 3 hours and ended with China favorite Circle of Life.

Elton John in concert (Shanghai)

We had a fantastic evening with Sir Elton John in Shanghai, thanks for the invite Credit Suisse!

More pictures of the concert here on this set on Flickr.

Nike Fuelband support is world class!

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On Wednesday I wrote about my disappointment with the Nike Fuelband, because the gadget stopped working after I had to upgrade the firmware. I was frustrated because I had started to become addicted to the Fuelband until it stopped working, and therefore I was ready to change to the Jawbone Up or the Fitbit One.

I didn’t really expect a reply from Nike and I also did not send them a link to my blog post. But within 2 hours of putting my post online the Nike social media team in the US contacted me through Twitter to see if they could help. The next morning a friend at Nike China contacted me to discuss the problem and at night an English speaking member of the Nike support hotline in China called me. Wow!

While having our Thanksgiving dinner the doorbell rang and a Nike delivery person handed me a new Fuelband. Right after that the Nike support person called me and told me he wants to help me to see if the old Fuelband can still be ‘unbricked’. He is going to call me back today at 2 PM and if it works I may have 2 working Fuelbands this afternoon. Thanks a lot Nike, this is world class support and I will (of course) start using the Fuelband again. Other companies can learn from this, Nike FTW!

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Happy Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving 2012

We just finished our annual Thanksgiving dinner, this time at home in Shanghai. We had invited Danny and Cindy with their 2 kids, and Grace’ parents are visiting, so we had quite a big group. We started with a bottle of Champagne (Bollinger, which I start to like better and better) and some snacks. We had ordered a turkey with all the usual side dishes which arrived exactly on time, and had fantastic dinner. Danny brought a good bottle of French Pinot Noir, which went well with the food. We ended the dinner with home made chocolate cake with cups of hot chocolate (and a bit of Scottish whisky for the taste). I felt as stuffed as a turkey after finishing all the food.

For me Thanksgiving feels like the beginning of the holiday season, so for the first time this year I put a Spotify Christmas songs playlist on my Sonos. There is so much choice of Christmas songs on Spotify that I can listen to different albums and artists every night until Christmas, I love it. After dinner the kids played and watched a Sinterklaas movie, but at 9 PM Danny’s kids had to leave (the schools are open as usual tomorrow). Danny stayed a bit longer and we had a few glasses of old Port wine, always a good drink to end the night with. Thanks for joining Danny & Cindy, and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

Thanksgiving 2012