Fog above the ocean in Vancouver

Last night there was heavy fog in Vancouver, and for the first time since we moved here over 6 months ago I heard fog horns from ships passing by. When I woke up this morning the world was greyish white because of the fog. Although it had lifted a bit since the night before, we could hardly see anything beyond a few hundred meters.

We had planned to do a short hike, but because of the fog I wasn’t sure if we should not just stay at home. It was only about 16 degrees outside, a bit different from the warm summer weather over the past couple of days. But then I checked a webcam at Grouse Mountain and saw that it was sunny and 26 degrees at 1100 meters! It’s a weather pattern called inversion, which basically means that the temperature at lower altitudes is lower than at higher altitudes (normally it’s colder the higher you go).

This picture was taken less than an hour after the one above, but 1100 meters higher. No fog but sunshine!

So we took one of the cars and drove up to Cypress Mountain. Twenty minutes later we were out of the clouds and in the sunshine at the base of the Olympic ski station. We hiked a short trail around a mountain lake with the kids, they loved running around in the sun instead of looking at the clouds over the sea at home. And then we drove down again through the clouds, where it was raining when we arrived at the bottom of the mountain.

I love Vancouver, even if the weather is foggy you just drive up one of the mountains (or up to Whistler, 1 hour away from our home) and you’re back in the sun again!

A few months ago I started to do some research on Bitcoins (see my blog post from June 14 about this), a virtual currency that can be mined with fast computers. At first I wasn’t sure and thought it was a bit shady, but the more I read about Bitcoins the more convinced I was that this could be the next big thing.

I looked at a couple of Bitcoin start-ups for XPCP and I started changing ‘real’ currency into Bitcoins. As an economist I realize that Bitcoins are based on trust (just like gold or any precious commodity), but that the big difference is that supply is known in advance (there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoins) but that demand can only go up. Ergo, the price of Bitcoins has to go up. It’s of course more speculation than real investing, but I am a risk taker and I believe this ‘gamble’ could pay off big time.

Bitcoins are still very volatile. When I made my first foray into Bitcoins the price was around USD 100 (see the chart in last blog post about the currency), then it went down a bit until the price started going up to about USD 140 a few days ago. At the moment I write this the price is USD 132. In my opinion still a great price to buy at, so I will keep on buying. I don’t know where the price will go, but as long as the trust does not go away (the biggest risk for any currency) more and more vendors will accept the currency and more people will start using it.

The biggest hurdle in obtaining Bitcoins is the process of going through an online exchange. Because I am not Canadian it was hard to do it in Canada, and in Holland I needed a local mobile number in order to verify my identity. Although there are no regulations yet for Bitcoins in most countries, local exchanges all want to become official, so they have all kinds of internal regulations to make sure they will be approved eventually.

But although it’s very hard now that will change soon, because the first Bitcoin ATMs wil be shipped next month, and the very first ATM will be located in Vancouver! I believe this might be a game changer. It will still be difficult to understand how to set up a Bitcoin wallet for most people, but once you have done that (or once someone has helped you to do that for you) you can buy and sell Bitcoin very easily at the ATM.

This will certainly drive the adoption of Bitcoins and make the currency easier accessible for people who don’t fully understand the mechanics behind it. In total there will be 5 machines installed in Canada this year, likely the other 4 will be placed in Toronto, Montreal, Calgary and Ottawa. Good to see that my new hometown of  Vancouver is the first to get one.

I am off to buy some some more Bitcoins!

My downhill mountain bike trip left me with one ‘serious’ injury, a bruised rib on the top left side of my chest. The problem with a bruised rib is not that it hurts all the time (it doesn’t when you don’t move), but that it can be very painful when you forget about it. At night I wake up several times when I move a bit in my sleep, and during the day I try not to use my left arm too much to lift things. If I laugh it is so painful that I will stop right away, and coughing is something I try to avoid at all costs right now. On Thursday and Friday I did not even take my convertible to the office (despite the warm and sunny weather), because getting in and out of the close-to-the-ground seats just hurt too much.

For today I had planned a serious hike with a Dutch business friend, but I emailed him on Friday night that I would not be able to make it. Each time I take a deep breath or take a step up or down it hurt a lot, and so I did not think I could do a mountain hike. My parents are in town and I had planned to do some serious sea kayaking with my dad, but even that I can’t do. I regret my mountain bike ride more and more, but I can’t change it and will have to wait a few weeks until the injury will go away (and when the best time of summer will be over…).

This afternoon I had it a bit with sitting at home and watching the sailing boats on the sea, and I wanted to something outside of the house. The women had gone shopping, so my dad, Scott and I drove my car up to the alpine ski station at Cypress Mountain. Originally we just wanted to take a look at what the ski resort looks like in summer, but  when we were there we saw a short trail, the Yew Lake Trail, that was accessible for wheel chairs. I did not even know that there are trails for wheel chairs, but because I feel semi-handicapped it gave me enough confidence to try to hike it. Scott was also very happy, because he knows I do a lot of trails but I never allow him to join me (most trails are either too long or too dangerous for him).

The short trail is beautiful, it starts at the lodge next to the parking lot at Cypress and loops around Yew Lake, which is a few hundred meters to the west of the ski base station. The trail is completely flat (at least for Vancouver standards) and very well maintained. You could indeed ride a wheel chair on it, or (in case you have young kids) bring a stroller.

Nature is (as usual on the North Shore) amazing, with partly covered swamps, a lake, old trees, many flowers and of course the mountains. Scott loved the 2 ski chair lifts that we came across as well and he told me that he wants to try them out once the snow start falling in a few months. I promised him I will take him there every weekend so he can learn to ski quickly.

If you are not in good shape or just want a short easy hike, the Yew Lake Trail is perfect. If you are looking for something more serious, there are tons of other trails that start at the Cypress parking lot as well. There is a bar/restaurant at Cypress that’s open in summer, so you can have drinks before or after the hike. Have fun!

My neighbour J. is a former Canadian freestyle ski champion and a fanatical downhill mountain biker. I see him riding regularly and he invited me to join him on one of his rides. So today after work we drove up Cypress Mountain to the alpine ski area, where we unloaded the bikes and got started.

I had no idea what to expect, but considering all the gear that I had to wear (leg protectors, arm protectors, a back protector, a helmet and gloves) I knew it would not be simple bike ride. It started off quite easy, we took a gravel maintenance road down (and later up) through the woods below Cypress until we came to the powerlines that go up from Caulfeild to Cypress. It was a sunny day again and nature was beautiful. J. told me some interesting fact about the plants that we came across and showed me several bear droppings (none recent, so probably no bears in the area). At the power lines there was a nice view and we made a short stop and had some water.

After that the real trail riding started, we hit a small bike trail though the woods that was quite scary at first. J. taught me some basic techniques and soon I was going down slopes that I could have never imagined to go down from. Basically it’s all about not being afraid, your bike can do a lot more than you think. I wasn’t really afraid, but I felt I did not have full control over my bike yet so when things were too extreme I just stopped and walked a bit. At the end of this part of the trail we hit a maintenance road and right before this road I did not pay attention. The result was that my bike slipped away from me and I fell pretty hard. Luckily I was protected well so it did not really hurt, but it scared me a bit.

From then onwards I paid better attention and took less risk than on the first part. I was also getting a bit tired. Downhill biking seems easy, but it’s actually quite hard. You have to control your bike the whole time and my legs were not used to that. Next to that you have to bike up every now and then, which takes some effort when it’s around 30 degrees on the mountain. The downhill ride is not just 30 minutes or so, but it takes a full 2 hours in which you have to concentrate on the trail, the rocks, the trees and your bike constantly.

On the second part of the downhill trail I went down a steep slope and felt the bike was going a bit too fast, so I hit the brakes. For some reason I was not thinking, and instead of just using the backwheel brakes I also used my front tire brake. The result: my bike flipped over and I landed next to it. It hurt a bit, but not too much, so I got on the bike and continued the ride. But I realized that I made the mistake because I was tired and I became even more cautious.

We then hit the top of the Cypruss Falls, where Sonja and I had a close encounter with a bear a few months ago. J. told me some of his bear stories, he has seen quite some bears in this area over the years but he is not afraid of them (he carries a gun and bear spray in his back pack, just in case). He also explained me how to spot cougars, there seem to be more of them this year (this morning there was actually one seen at Lighthouse Park, not too far from where we live).

The last part of the trail was a part that I had hiked with my sister once. It was not harder than the other parts we did, but I felt less comfortable than before and had to concentrate even more in order not to make mistakes. And then it happened: I again braked using my front brakes and again I summersaulted through the air, this time landing head first on the ground. I immediately felt a headache and I stayed on the ground for a few seconds before trying to get up. J. came over right away (he was ahead of me but heard the crash) and checked on me. Everthing seemed fine, but the rocks that I had landed on hurt quite a bit. I washed my face (it was covered in sand and mud) and had some water, and then we went down to Nelson Creek. I did not take any risks anymore after this last crash!

The last few kilometers were easy, but I was glad to be home again. I immediately took a hot shower and was surprised to see how bruised my body was. I probably hit a rock with my chest, because it looked like someone had beaten me up there. I had scratches and small wounds all over my body and generally I was very sore. A hot shower helped, but I’ll probably need a good sleep and 1-2 days of rest before I am okay again. My headache lukcily disappeared, so the helmet had protected me well and I had no concussion.

Looking back the bike ride was a lot of fun, but I am not sure if I am ready for this. If I will do it again I will first need to learn some more downhill techniques. I am glad I did it though, the experience was great and now I know what downhill biking is all about.

I wonder if I will ever learn it: always drink water on runs over 30 minutes on hot summer days.

This afternoon I left the office a bit earlier to hike up Grouse Mountain. Before my trip to China in July I did the Grouse Grind 1-2 times per week, but I had not climbed it since I came back. The weather was nice, about 25 Celsius (although my car told me it was closer to 30 degrees) and a beautiful blue sky.

I mainly drank coffee during the day, so I had a glass of water before I drove my car to the foot of the mountain. Because most of the trail is in the shade of the trees I did not think it would be very warm and so I did not bring any water. I normally don’t drink during this hike, because it’s less than an hour and there is a Starbucks at the end of the trail for water or other cold drinks.

When I started off I felt some muscle ache in my upper legs. I did not really understand why, because I didn’t run yesterday (my last run was a 7 km mountain run on Sunday). But then I realized it may have been from a semi-dangerous kayak experience on Monday. Scott and I had gone for a kayak trip to Whytecliff Beach, but on the way back the tide currents were suddenly so strong that Scott could not paddle against it. He therefore held on to my kayak and I had to paddle as hard as I could to get back to shore. It took me 45 minutes and we finally made it, but I was exhausted. I know I put my legs and knees against the top of my kayak to be able to have a more powerful paddle stroke, and that’s likely why I felt my legs today.

No big deal and after a few minutes of climbing the muscle ache had disappeared. At first the climb went quite well, but it was a lot warmer than I had expected. So warm that I could not really get into a good rhythm, I was sweating a lot and had to keep on getting the sweat out of my eyes.

About half way my legs were suddenly very tired. That’s strange, because normally on the Grouse Grind my breathing gets faster before I feel tired, but now I was still breathing normally, although my heart was beating very fast. I thought that it may be because of the food (I had sushi for lunch, maybe I did not eat enough calories to burn?) and continued my walk. But then I realized I was getting thirsty as well, which is unusual if I climb up only once. Quickly my thirst was getting worse but I did not bring any drinks and I had at least another 300 vertical meters ahead of me. Going down wasn’t really an option. Not only is it not allowed, but it’s also quite dangerous because the mountain is very steep in many places.

So I just walked very slowly and even had to stop a couple of times. When I saw other people drinking (there were quite some other hikers on the trail) I almost wanted to ask them for a sip, but I did not do that and continued on. I came to a point where I would have paid $50 for a bottle of water if there had been any for sale on the trail, but of course this isn’t China so there are no vendors climbing up mountains to make a few extra dollars.

When I got closer to the top the temperature was much lower (the end of the trail is at about 1200 meters, so it’s noticeably cooler there than at the bottom) and I felt climbing up the rocks was a little less difficult. I knew I would be able to make it, but it was still not easy. I pushed myself very hard and eventually reached the top. My time: 1:01, the first time that the Grouse Grind took me more than an hour while hiking on my own.

I immediately got a cold chocolate milk at Starbucks and it tasted fantastic. Within minutes my energy came back and once I could walk again normally I took the cable car down and drove home. There I drank a liter of water and ate a banana and now I am perfectly fine again. It was a good lesson though. The Grouse Grind is not your average walk in the park, and doing it without water on a hot summer day can be dangerous. I have been dehydrated while doing sports in warm weather several times over the years and I will try to make sure this won’t happen again – and certainly not on the Grouse Grind!

One of the great things about British Columbia is that every month has at least one long weekend. I only found out on Friday that this weekend is another 3-day weekend (Monday is British Columbia day, whatever that means), so a lot of extra time to spend with the family.

Today we went to Granville Island for lunch and to do some shopping. There is a great public market with tons of fresh local products, and we bought a lot of fruit and salads for the next days. After a quick stop in the marina where I wanted to show Grace a boat that I like (and where we saw a family of sea lions playing together!), we drove over to Mountain Equipment Corporation. MEC is the place where I buy most of my outdoor gear, they have everything I need and their service is great. I had promised Scott to teach him how to kayak during this holiday, so I got him a small kids kayak with a paddle and a life jacket.

After we arrived home he wanted to go kayaking right away. My original plan had been to start tomorrow, but he was so excited that I eventually gave in. I carried both our kayaks down to the beach, and while Grace and Elaine watched I tried to teach him the basics. Although it was not a big success right away, Scott loved it so much. He was not afraid at all, even when we went a bit farther out to sea. Most of the time he held onto my kayak instead of paddling himself (I put his paddle in my boat), and even when he unintentionally let go he was laughing hard instead of being afraid. Happy to see that.

We spent about 30 minutes on the water but if had been up to Scott we would have stayed a lot longer, so I am sure we’ll be back at the beach tomorrow. When I put Scott to bed and talked about the day with him (we do that almost every night) kayaking was the main thing he wanted to talk about, and he had all kinds of questions about boats and the behavior of waves. Glad he likes it so much, it’s nice to have a new sport I can do together with him!

One of the areas where I see major disruption happening over the next years is the banking industry. Most major banks are still living in the 20th century and don’t seem to realize that start-ups will turn their traditional industry upside down. Probably many feel are not only too big to fail, but also too big to change. Or more likely, their employees are generally too risk averse to innovate.

I looked at various business models and think that peer to peer (p2p) lending will be a game changer. In the US Lending Club is the leading player in this field and I wrote about them a couple of times already on this blog. They are killing it and got an investment from Google at a $1.55 billion valuation a few months ago. On the secondary market investors are willing to pay even higher prices for their shares right now. I joined the LendIt Conference in New York City in June and was impressed by how quickly the industry is maturing.

In January I was introduced to Soul Htite, co-founder and former CTO of Lending Club. He moved to Shanghai 2 years ago to set up a Chinese version of Lending Club that he called SinoLending (点融网, www.dianrong.com). SinoLending is an online lending platform where members can borrow and lend money among themselves at better interest rates. Borrowers can get loans significantly below market rates, and lenders can earn returns well above those of bank deposits, wealth management products, trust products and other traditional fixed-income investments.

One problem I have encountered many times over the past years, is that companies or individuals are not able to get bank loans. Even if the company is doing well and only needs a temporary loan, the banks are not able (or not willing) to gives these loans. This is a major problem for China’s growth and it’s an important reason why the whole shadow banking industry developed in China. SinoLending can help to solve this problem.

SinoLending’s proprietary and state of the art technology gives the company a huge advantage over traditional banks by reducing the cost of customer acquisition, underwriting, fund managements, bad debt collections, regulatory compliance, and reporting. Better rates and better returns are now a reality in China. As a lender you get returns of on average 15-20% per year, much higher than you get anywhere else, and even a lot higher than I get on my Lending Club loans. Take a look at some of their currently available loans at http://www.dianrong.com/browse/browse. Anybody in China can sign up and immediately invest in loans, even if you just want to put a few hundred Renminbi in.

View from the SinoLending/Dianrong offices in Shanghai

I looked at several China based p2p platforms and think SinoLending is by far the most professional with an excellent back-end system (similar to Lending Club) and a great Chinese management team. Although there is a big regulatory risk in China I believe this company can become the leader in this space because of Soul’s previous experience, because of his strong team and because of their good local connections. Therefore I am happy to announce that after a few months of advising the company I now formally joined the SinoLending board, so I can help the company even better to achieve its goals.

Good luck to the Sinolending/Dianrong team and let’s make this a huge success together!

If you read Chinese, Forbes China had a good article on SinoLending in its issue from July 15.

On Saturday Marcel Ekkel and I went for a long hike on Hong Kong Island, doing the main part of the Hong Kong Trail. We started in Big Wave Bay / Shek O, on the far eastern end of HK Island, which is officially the end of the trail. Main reason was that it would be a sunny and very hot day (up to 35 degrees) and the western part of HK Island has a lot more shade than the eastern part, so it would be better to spend the hottest part of the day on partly covered trails.

I have done a lot of hikes with Marcel over the years (among others in preparation for the Trailwalker), and I like to hike with him. We’re both in decent shape and during our hikes we talk for hours about everything, from work to private life, and from politics to social issues. Marcel came to pick me up at my hotel at 7:30 AM and after discussing some logistics we took a cab to Big Wave Bay. In the taxi I had a quick breakfast (Japanese cakes from 7 Eleven) and at 8:15 we were at the start of the trail.

I had never been to this part of the island and I was impressed by the beautiful sandy beaches and the fact that there was hardly anybody else. Partly because it was so early of course, but during the whole day on the trail we hardly met any other people. That’s the same all over the world, people tend to stay in areas that they know, and when you are more than 2 km from the nearest parking lot you hardly see anybody anymore. I think a lot of people don’t realize how beautiful Hong Kong’s nature is and what they are missing out on.

The hike was pretty tough, not only because of the distance (we hiked 35 km), but also because we had to climb several mountains. And especially because of the heat: after about 20 km we had to hike over 2 hills that had no shade whatsoever and where there was no wind either. It felt like 50 degrees (and maybe it was actually) and I kept on drinking to stay hydrated. When we took a break after 25 km I realized I had drunk 7 liters already (a mix of water, Japanese sports drink and apple juice).

After the break we came closer to urban areas but the trails were still great, and luckily a lot more covered. When we were above Wanchai we noticed that it was getting cloudy and when we hiked a bit further we felt that it might start to rain soon. So after 30 km we decided to leave the trail and hike to the top of the hill and then down on the other side to Bowen Road and Central. We ended the day at the hotel pool and hot tub with cold beer and chilled white wine, a perfect way to end a sportive day.

It was once again a great trail hike through the Hong Kong hills. Very different from the ones I do in Vancouver, but certainly as nice. I realize that because I do so many trail runs these days, hiking up mountains is now much easier for me than just a few months ago. Good to know and a a good reason to keep on running and hiking the British Columbia trails after this trip.

We spent a couple of days in Hong Kong with the family, I put more pictures of the trip in this set on Flickr.