It’s Monday lunchtime and it has been snowing non-stop in Vancouver since Saturday morning. Even at our house (which is close to the sea) there is a lot of snow and it looks great. Downside is that it’s hard to drive in this kind of weather, we don’t have a heated driveway so last night I could not even drive our family car up to the garage anymore.

Alfred, a long time friend from Holland, is visiting for a couple of days, so we decided to grab the opportunity and do some snow sports over the weekend. On Saturday we drove up to Hollyburn Mountain where we went snowshoeing. It was snowing hard it was not too cold, so perfect weather to enjoy the trails through the woods.

So far I had only done green and blue snowshoe trails, but this time we also tried some black ones. Because of the fresh snow they were not hard at all, just a bit steep at some places. The scenery was amazing with huge amounts of snow on the trees, and when you stopped it was completely silent. We were surprised that we hardly met anyone else on the trails, despite it being a Saturday afternoon. After the snowshoeing we had a glass of wine in my rooftop terrace hot tub, while it was snowing hard. We ended the evening at The Boathouse in Horseshoe Bay for excellent sea food dinner with local a Pinot Blanc.

On Sunday Scott had his weekly ski lesson on Cypress Mountain, so Alfred and I decided to go skiing as well. The snow was fantastic with a huge amount of fresh powder. Finally some of the black diamond slopes were open, so we tried some of them. Pretty cool to be skiing through the trees with your skis invisible under a thick layer of snow.

When Scott finished his lesson he also wanted to ski through the trees, so we took him on an easy trail. He loved it, despite his basic skills (he only had 7 lessons of 2 hours each so far) he was not afraid at all and had a great time. After that he was so tired, however, that he fell asleep in the car on the way back!

The snow was supposed to stop overnight, but this morning it was still snowing hard. According to the weather report it should have stopped snowing by late morning, so I decided to stay home until lunch time in order to avoid the snow and the traffic jams. But instead of less snow it started to snow even harder…

We kept the kids home from school today: the school sent us a text message at 6:30 AM that classes would start an hour later, and then our kids’ teachers advised us by email that the roads up the mountain were in very bad condition so that we should consider to keep the kids at home. That was turned out to be a good idea, because the heavy snow caused a power failure and parents had to pick up their kids before lunchtime already!

Driving was quite a challenge, especially because I did not put winter tires on my car and because the roads in our area were not cleaned or sprayed with salt. I like snow a lot, but I don’t mind if it would stop snowing soon. It looks great but when you live in a city with lots of hills it can disrupt life quite a bit. One thing is for sure, next year I am going to get winter tires for my car!

This afternoon I will pick up a friend from the airport, so at breakfast I checked Google to see what time the plane will arrive. Scott, who was eating his oatmeal next to me, wanted to see where the plane was at that moment, so I showed him the location of the plane on the KLM website. However, then I noticed that there was a difference in arrival time of more than 40 minutes between KLM and Google.

I assumed it was just a glitch that would be gone after refreshing the page or by just waiting 10 minutes, but that was not the case. It’s now about 5 hours later and both sites still show a different arrival time. Who should I believe? If Google is right I need to leave 40 minutes earlier than planned, but if KLM is right and I leave early I have to wait 40 minutes at the airport.

I normally use Google for arrival information and so far they have always been right, but because this is a KLM flight I would assume KLM’s information is more accurate. I wonder where they get their data from, I guess there should only be one feed for this information (the plane’s on-board computer)?

Update:  KLM’s information was right and Google was wrong, the flight landed at 2:22 PM. Good to know for the future. I still don’t understand why they give different arrival times though. Even after the plane had landed Google still showed 1:41 PM, and for tomorrow’s flight it now shows 1:49 PM, even though the flight has not even departed yet.

Mt. Gox seems to be in a dead spiral. The management is not only incapable of running the company but also of communicating effectively with its consumers. Today’s announcement that they have nothing to announce forced the Bitcoin price on the exchange down even further. People seem to be losing all trust in Mt. Gox, despite the fact that this is not the first time the exchange screwed up big time and each time they managed to come back.

Personally I think Mt. Gox still has a 60% chance to survive so if I would still have fiat money in the exchange I would say ‘buy, buy, buy’! I know some people who are trying to buy at these prices, but this is no investment advice to my readers. There is a big risk that you will lose all your money or that at least it will be tied up for a long time to come, so stay away if you have no extreme risk tolerance and don’t understand Bitcoin well.

But why is the management handling this so badly? Are they just plain stupid? Maybe, or maybe not. They might actually be geniuses, because they created a risk free money machine for themselves. Does nobody see this? The management can now buy BTC at $112 and sell it at the same moment for 5 times that amount on other exchanges. And they can do this continuously, this is an amazing opportunity for them and I would be surprised if they don’t take advantage of it.

It’s speculation, but today’s announcement only creates a larger opportunity for them. It made the price drop even further and they have more time to continue their trades. Wouldn’t it be possible that Mt. Gox lost a lot of money with the transaction malleability and is now using this to earn this money back?

The volume on the exchange seems to be about 70,000 BTC (source: bitcoincharts.com), which means that theoretically they can earn about $30 million per day risk free (assuming rates won’t change too much). Keeping their customers in the dark for a few more days could be extremely lucrative for them and might actually save the company if they would put the money back in.

Like I said, this is pure speculation, but these guys are entrepreneurs and if an entrepreneur sees an opportunity…

I’m a global citizen, so over the years I have cheered for many countries during international sports events. I am generally not a huge fan of watching sports (I prefer to do sports myself), but it’s always fun to watch a Dutch soccer game with friends (and a lot of beer) during the World Cup.

But I’ve also watched China play with Chinese flags painted on my face, for example when I was in Seoul for the soccer World Cup in 2002. So far I have not cheered for Canada yet, but that may come soon when watching the Olympic (ice) hockey semi-finals on Friday!

The day before the Sochi Olympics opening ceremony, Scott and Elaine were allowed to were civvies (as opposed to their daily uniform) to school, in the colors of their home country. When I read that they had to choose their country I was looking forward to which country they would choose.

The kids are both Dutch, in the sense that they have a Dutch passport, speak Dutch, watch some Dutch TV programs and go to Holland about once a year. But they never lived there, so I was not sure if they would choose Holland.

The more obvious choice would be China, where they were both born and raised until they moved to Vancouver about a year ago. They are both fluent in Chinese, they still love Chinese food (we mainly ate Chinese food in Shanghai) and they have a lot of Chinese friends in Vancouver as well.

So when they had to make the choice they both said… Canada! Frankly, at first I was a bit surprised. But when I thought about it a bit more it’s actually quite logical. They have only been here a year, but for them it probably seems like their whole life. They don’t really remember their life in China anymore and all their friends are now here. They probably don’t realize that they have a Dutch passport and they also never see me wearing orange for sports events. They now sing the Canadian national anthem in school every week and learn everything about Canada, so it’s logical they feel Canadian.

Thinking about it, I am happy that they made this choice, because it shows they are developing roots here. Over the years I have seen too many expat kids who lived all over the world and don’t know where they belong anymore. At least Scott and Elaine will likely feel completely Canadian when they get older. And I will cheer for Canada with them this weekend if “we” make it to the hockey finals!

The negative news about Bitcoin does not seem to stop. Central Banks keep on warning for the crypto currency, but that does not really have an influence on the market anymore. The Charlie Shrem arrest had a chilling effect on the community, but was not directly related to Bitcoin. The problems at Mt. Gox because of the transaction malleability caused another round of negative articles in mainstream media that do not understand the real issue (“Bitcoin has a fatal flaw”).

Next came the ban of Bitcoin in Russia, which was unexpected for many Bitcoin fanatics. After that news came that many more exchanges would be affected by the transaction malleability bug and a lot of them closed temporarily. Shortly after that there was a DDoS attack on the Bitcoin network that slowed things down considerably. And when the whole BTC community thought everything was finally settling down a bit, news broke that Silk Road 2.0 was hacked and 4400 coins were stolen out (or maybe the operators stole the coins?).

If Bitcoin had been a business it would have been bankrupt by now. But interestingly Bitcoin went down about 25% over the past week, but not more than that. A year ago this news would have led to a major crash, like the one in April where Bitcoin lost 70% of its value in one single day. To me this is a very good sign, Bitcoin has become a lot more mature and not everybody starts panic selling anymore even when there is such a long string of negative news.

What doesn’t kill you it makes you stronger, and that’s the case with Bitcoin as well. It will take more time to gain acceptance among the general population, but it’s certainly not the end of Bitcoin. The currency has once again proven that it can solve its own problems and most exchanges have adjusted their code for the transaction malleability bug.

Although I don’t like to speculate about the Bitcoin price too much, I think the value will go up again fast once more positive news comes out. It may take a few weeks or months, but I personally believe that unless something huge happens this might be the last time you can buy BTC below $600.

When you’re interested in Bitcoin and follow its daily news you won’t be bored. Not a day goes by without a Central Bank warning of the potential dangers of the cryptocurrency, but the market hardly reacts to that anymore. It is to be expected that that the institutions that may be replaced by Bitcoin will try to slow that process down.

Same thing for banks, some are punishing customers or trying to stop them from buying Bitcoin (this happened to me). Most don’t want Bitcoin-related businesses as clients, for reasons that are not always entirely clear. Sometimes I think something bigger is at play here to stop Bitcoin. But it does not really worry me because if you understand the Bitcoin protocol you will realize Bitcoin can’t be stopped because of its decentralized nature.

What does worry me more though, are the recent scandals in Bitcoin land. For example, Bitcoin Foundation founding member Charlie Shrem who was arrested and charged with money laundering, while on his way to the Miami Bitcoin Conference. Charlie is only 24 years old and that may have led to business decisions that he would not have made had he been a bit more experienced.

He also publicly made remarks like “I won’t hire you unless I drink with you or smoke weed with you”. I don’t have a problem with someone saying that if he runs a small start-up, but the problem is that Charlie also represents the Bitcoin Foundation. This foundation protects and promotes the use of Bitcoin, and therefore all negative news about Charlie reflects negative on Bitcoin itself. Luckily Charlie saw that himself as well and he resigned within a day of his arrest.

Another, more worrying, scandal is that of Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox. This used to be the biggest Bitcoin exchange in the world until a few months ago and its price has been the reference price for Bitcoin until very recently. It turns out that its software had a flaw which made it possible for people to double spend their Bitcoins by changing the transaction ID. This is obviously a big problem for Mt. Gox and makes Bitcoin look even more dangerous to the average person.

But what’s even worse is that Mt. Gox tried to blame the Bitcoin protocol for this. It’s true that Bitcoin has an issue (transaction malleability) that has been known for several years, but that can easily be overcome if you program your wallet software correctly. The core developers of Bitcoin are aware of it and will eventually work on it, but it’s not a high priority for them.

However, Mt. Gox is now spinning the story to make Bitcoin look bad and trying to hide that it’s actually the company’s own fault. Can you blame a company for that? Yes, especially when your CEO is a board member of the Bitcoin Foundation! Mark Karpeles, the CEO of Mt. Gox, is a founding member of the Bitcoin Foundation and still serves on its board. One of the Bitcoin Foundation’s core tasks is to make sure no inaccurate reporting about Bitcoin occurs and what Mark did today is therefore unacceptable. In my opinion the Bitcoin Foundation should remove Mark from its board right away.

Actually, both scandals may be a blessing in disguise. Young guys like Charlie and Mark are great to start a movement and to evangelize it in the early stages. But Bitcoin is now close to a breakthrough into the mainstream world and then you’ll need different people to run the show. If the Bitcoin Foundation is smart (and I think it is) they will replace them with more experienced people with credibility in both the Biticoin community and the business world or government.

I think Bitcoin is in the middle of a transformation. The organization was started by libertarians with great ideas, but who can’t change the world without the help of people from the establishment. Many of the early Bitcoin people are young and idealistic, which is exactly what you need to get something new off the ground. But just as with a business, the people who started it may not always be the best people to lead it in the growth phase.

And that’s what’s happening now with Bitcoin. You can’t build a new global financial economy on systems that can’t scale. Mt. Gox was not built to handle the huge traffic it was getting and therefore will not survive. As Andreas Antonopoulos put it a few days ago “Mt. Gox has built an exchange based on a hodgepodge of technologies that are really not suitable for running an exchange. And it’s being run by people who don’t really have experience building and operating scalable systems”. New, more professional and well-funded companies like Coinbase and Circle will take over the space, making it ready for primetime.

In the Bitcoin Foundation people like Charlie and Mark need to be replaced by more experienced professionals. If that won’t happen I think the Bitcoin Foundation may not survive itself, which may be a serious but not life-threatening problem for Bitcoin.

I believe in the Bitcoin and the Bitcoin protocol and I’m sure they will survive this transformation and come out of this a lot stronger.  I will hold on to my Bitcoins and may even buy a few more at today’s low prices. Never a boring day in Bitcoin land!

Whistler Village, taken from Blackcomb Mountain

This weekend is a holiday weekend in British Columbia (Family Day weekend), and we decided to spend it in Whistler. It’s only a 75 minute drive from our house to Whistler when I follow the speed limit (or less than an hour if I hit the gas a bit more), but I find it just too far to drive up and down to go skiing. So we normally ski on Cypress Mountain in West Vancouver, which is just 20 minutes away and where we have a season ski pass. But although I like Cypress a lot, it is relatively small compared to Whistler (Cypress has 53 ski runs, Whistler over 200) and I also like to stay overnight in a ski resort instead of going home after skiing.

We rented a suite at the Hilton in Whistler, which was a good choice. The location of the Hilton is great, in the middle of the village at the end of the ski slopes and next to the main ski lifts. The room itself was quite good (generally I’m not a big fan of Hilton Hotels in North America), with an open fireplace (with wood, not gas) in the living room and even a steam bath in one of the bathrooms. The views from the balconies were nice, but it was too cold to sit outside and enjoy it. We had a great experience and I would not hesitate to stay at this hotel again in the future.

Peak 2 Peak express

As a ski area Whistler is excellent, there are a lot of runs and they are very well maintained, especially compared to the ski resorts in Europe. You can ski at the lower level on runs through the forest, or you can go up to the top where it’s alpine wonderland with fantastic views. Whistler combines 2 ski areas, that of Whistler and that of Blackcomb Mountain. They are connected by the Peak 2 Peak, a 4 km gondola ride between the 2 mountains (with over distance 3 km between 2 towers, which we were told was a world record). Despite the unusually warm and dry winter this year all runs were open and the snow quality was pretty good.

Scott skiing down into Whistler Village

Scott has been taking ski lessons for a couple of weeks already (once a week for 2 hours per time) and I decided to go skiing with him. That worked out quite well, kids learn to ski so quickly. He has no fear whatsoever and just goes straight down slopes without worrying about dangers or about whether he will be able to stop. I tried to teach him to make curves, but he likes speed so much that he did not really listen. He did not fall once during the 2 days, but of course he was exhausted at the end of both days. I look forward to a lot more skiing with him in the future!

Next to skiing we had a very relaxed time. I took the kids swimming in the open air pool at the Hilton, which was quite an experience because it was -11 Celsius outside. Whistler has some high end restaurants with top chefs and excellent wine lists, so we checked out some of those. And Grace went shopping with her sister (who was visiting us), which is also something that you can do well in Whistler. There are also a lot of art galleries, with some of the same painters that we came across in galleries on Maui during our trip a couple of months ago.

Because the Sochi Olympics started this weekend there was a real Olympic atmosphere in Whistler (exactly 4 years ago the Olympics were held in Vancouver and Whistler), and so we watched quite a lot of sports as well. I normally hardly ever watch TV (I find it a waste of time), but I enjoyed watching the opening ceremony and some of the skating and snowboarding events. The kids also liked it and preferred it over their usual kids series on Netflix.

It’s great to have a resort like Whistler so close to our home. It’s almost too close to stay overnight, but it’s a different experience when you stay in the village instead of taking a car back, so I am glad we turned the ski trip into a mini-break. I’ll probably be back once or twice this season for skiing, and also in summer I plan to spend more time in Whistler’s mountains (trail running & mountain biking).

 

Happy New Year from all of us at CrossPacific Capital (XPCP).

This is the Chinese New Year card that we sent to many of our business relations and portfolio companies today, with the theme “Old Money, New Money”. Long live Bitcoin!